Election 2008--CLOSED

[Sandy]

Sandy - Do you think Obama and/or his team have read this book?

I believe Obama met with Krugman a few days ago, if only for a photo op. It's unlikely that his economic team would ignore America's most recent Nobel laureate in economics. That is to say, I assume/hope that Obama's team is more on the ball than Bush's. Bernancke is an academic expert on the Great Depression, too. FWIW.

[brokebacktom]

I just saw that Franken is currently ahead by 22 votes with 138,000 still to be counted. I'd love to see him in the Senate, especially since the Dem. in Georgia lost. Read more about it at www.alfranken.com.

I saw taht too. But the News Media here in MN still has Coleman ahead by 122 votes. That was in the News this morning. The claims of a Frankin lead is only bt Frankin's campaign right now. Either way its still a mess here with over 20,000 votes thrown out.

[Ellen (tellyouwhat)]

Sandy - Do you think Obama and/or his team have read this book?

The ideas of Paul Krugman are so well known from his column in the New York Times, I almost thought he might be offered a place on the White House economic team, especially after he won the Nobel Prize recently.

He is one of the most well-known economist in the U.S., who does not blindly adhere to the Milton Friedman mindset (which has shocked, SHOCKED Alan Greenspan in its recent failure.)  So I am sure that either Obama or his economic team are well-versed in Krugman's suggestions.

And I agree with Sandy that Krugman has been the main reason I have personally been able to believe we can get through to a better situation once the free-market "fundamentalists" are dethroned.

[ChrisW]

Thanks for this - I think the substance of these ideas is what I have read of in the UK media.

[Lyle (Mooska)]

I just saw that Franken is currently ahead by 22 votes with 138,000 still to be counted. I'd love to see him in the Senate, especially since the Dem. in Georgia lost. Read more about it at www.alfranken.com.

I saw that too. But the News Media here in MN still has Coleman ahead by 122 votes. That was in the News this morning. The claims of a Frankin lead is only bt Frankin's campaign right now. Either way its still a mess here with over 20,000 votes thrown out.

What I don't understand is that Minnesota's Secretary of State website was
updated yesterday and has Franken leading by over 11,000 votes with 98.67
of the precincts counted.

What is it that I'm missing here?

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

[jack]

well...

i don't THINK i am a marxist, nor do i think that capitalism is to fade from the earth.  i think a mismanaged FORMERLY (ALMOST) capitalist country has strayed so far from true capitalism and its people so far from economic reality that only the surface tension of the bubble is holding things together.

i do think that the human species of a given society is capable, lemming-like to march, ipod buds in their ears, right over the   economic cliff, nor do i think that is inconsistent with human behavior through history.

i'm just watching, sphinx-like, from the sidelines.   

[garyd]

He is one of the most well-known economist in the U.S., who does not blindly adhere to the Milton Friedman mindset (which has shocked, SHOCKED Alan Greenspan in its recent failure.)  So I am sure that either Obama or his economic team are well-versed in Krugman's suggestions.

And I agree with Sandy that Krugman has been the main reason I have personally been able to believe we can get through to a better situation once the free-market "fundamentalists" are dethroned.

It seems to me that there is much to admire about Paul Krugman and his work. 
First of all is his ability to explain his work so that I can understand what the hell he is talking about.
Second, he does not appear to be an absolutist (as for as economics is concerned anyway) and tries to avoid generalities.
(Case in point, Ellen, he admires Friedman by the way: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19857)

He is no politician, however.
His strong support of Senator Clinton and his attacks on Obama's perceived bipartisan leadership style (Krugman is fairly Machiavellian when it comes to politics)
probably precluded him (and for a variety of other reasons) from being an actual member of the administration.
His current Nobel probably did not help either.
While his theory of increasing returns and resulting agglomeration (i.e. path dependence, cars in Detroit, Tech in Silicon Valley, Fashion in New York)
make sense, if you can explain the mathematics then give me a whistle.
Well, no, check that,  I could not explain Samuelson's mathematics for diminishing returns either and they have been around longer.
The theory, however, does not seem to address outsourcing though I simply may have missed that part.

As for "Depression Economics" and the current crisis, his liquidity theory seems quite solid.  If all of the "everybodies" demand liquidity
then who is left but the government to supply it?
And, of course, it is difficult to argue with anything that needs to be rescued, like a bank, needs to be regulated like a bank. (i.e. entire financial industry)
Then again, appropriate oversight might also do the trick.

Again, he is not an absolutist in this arena either.
He is for the auto bailout and who knows if he is really right about that.
In addition his "obvious solution" of government supplied liquidity is certainly going to
delay the "prayed for "  environmental initiatives and the holy grail of health care. 
So be careful what you wish for, I guess.

I don't use an iPod.
I do love my iPhone.
I avoid cliffs and
have seen the Sphinx. 
It is not all that mysterious and, quite frankly,
appears as though it would benefit from a brisk walk.

[BayCityJohn]

Democrats: Obama needs hands-on economic approach

Democrats are growing impatient with President-elect Barack Obama's refusal to inject himself in the major economic crises confronting the country. Obama has sidestepped some policy questions by saying there is only one president at a time. But the dodge is wearing thin. "He's going to have to be more assertive than he's been," House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., told consumer advocates Thursday.

Frank, who has been dealing with both the bailout of the financial industry and a proposed rescue of Detroit automakers, said Obama needs to play a more significant role on economic issues.

"At a time of great crisis with mortgage foreclosures and autos, he says we only have one president at a time," Frank said. "I'm afraid that overstates the number of presidents we have. He's got to remedy that situation."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/12/04/national/w151125S86.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1

[brokebacktom]

I just saw that Franken is currently ahead by 22 votes with 138,000 still to be counted. I'd love to see him in the Senate, especially since the Dem. in Georgia lost. Read more about it at www.alfranken.com.

I saw that too. But the News Media here in MN still has Coleman ahead by 122 votes. That was in the News this morning. The claims of a Frankin lead is only bt Frankin's campaign right now. Either way its still a mess here with over 20,000 votes thrown out.

What I don't understand is that Minnesota's Secretary of State website was
updated yesterday and has Franken leading by over 11,000 votes with 98.67
of the precincts counted.

What is it that I'm missing here?

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

What you are missing is that the Secretary of State counts the disputted ballots with the over all count. Take those out Coleman is still winning. There are about 6,000 disputted ballots and about 20,000 absentee ballots thrown out. So, this will end up in the courts and maybe be brought up in the Senate for them to vote on it.

[Ellen (tellyouwhat)]

Democrats: Obama needs hands-on economic approach

Democrats are growing impatient with President-elect Barack Obama's refusal to inject himself in the major economic crises confronting the country. Obama has sidestepped some policy questions by saying there is only one president at a time. But the dodge is wearing thin. "He's going to have to be more assertive than he's been," House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., told consumer advocates Thursday.

Frank, who has been dealing with both the bailout of the financial industry and a proposed rescue of Detroit automakers, said Obama needs to play a more significant role on economic issues.

"At a time of great crisis with mortgage foreclosures and autos, he says we only have one president at a time," Frank said. "I'm afraid that overstates the number of presidents we have. He's got to remedy that situation."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/12/04/national/w151125S86.DTL&type=politics&tsp=1

Frank:  "I'm afraid that overstates the number of presidents we have."

Interesting quote.  Not sure what Obama can really do, without expressly granted authority, more than he is already doing.  He can't appear to be staging a coup. 

The best I've heard is that, as a Senator, he can introduce legislation.  Maybe he will.

[Ellen (tellyouwhat)]

It seems to me that there is much to admire about Paul Krugman and his work. 
First of all is his ability to explain his work so that I can understand what the hell he is talking about.
Second, he does not appear to be an absolutist (as for as economics is concerned anyway) and tries to avoid generalities.
(Case in point, Ellen, he admires Friedman by the way: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/19857)

Thanks for the article, gary, that is great.  Here is a quote from Krugman's article and I agree with it -- especially the bolded:

"And just to be clear: although this essay argues that Friedman was wrong on some issues, and sometimes seemed less than honest with his readers, I regard him as a great economist and a great man."

The reason I have a burr in my sock about Friedman is that I worked for an economist who was one of F's star pupils.  The thinking was that a "depression" could //would never happen again.  That was in the early nineties, and I kept my mouth shut but wondered -- really?  because they had faith that the waves of mergers, layoffs, deregulation, leveraged buyouts, etc., were all part of the free market, when to me much of it seemed built on a house of cards.

But we had Friedman and Alan Greenspan blessing most of it.  If Greenspan ever said a cautionary word, it was "irrational exuberance" and he was speaking to the financiers to remember their long-term goal -- wealth.  But goals became increasingly short-term, until we finally got our CEO pres and sidekick who made the most of their 8 year treasury raid, damn the consequences.

sorry for the rant.  everyone says we're supposed to get over Bush.  I'm trying but I think it is a misguided politeness.  I have to leave that to God and Obama.

He is no politician, however.

hmmmm -- okay I can see how that would turn Obama off but maybe in my innocence I believe it's best if the economists are picked purely for their theory, and Krugman has consistently allayed fears about saving social security and health care, pointing out that it is perfectly rational and affordable for government to do those things.  But I'm sure he will happily advise the White House from his current pulpit.

His current Nobel probably did not help either.
While his theory of increasing returns and resulting agglomeration (i.e. path dependence, cars in Detroit, Tech in Silicon Valley, Fashion in New York)
make sense, if you can explain the mathematics then give me a whistle.

Oh no I can't explain the math but in any case that research was decades old and I'm sure could use some updating, as there are different forces (like outsourcing) in play today.  The judges of this prize cited this research but they were also impressed with his more recent criticism of the powers that be(were) in Washington.

As for "Depression Economics" and the current crisis, his liquidity theory seems quite solid.  If all of the "everybodies" demand liquidity
then who is left but the government to supply it?
And, of course, it is difficult to argue with anything that needs to be rescued, like a bank, needs to be regulated like a bank. (i.e. entire financial industry)
Then again, appropriate oversight might also do the trick.

Agreed.  We have been the victims of de-regulation AND lack of oversight.

So be careful what you wish for, I guess.

I am wishing for the holy grail.

I do love my iPhone.

Should I break down and buy one?  Or wait for the next generation?  I've heard that the batteries run down too quickly. 

[brokebacktom]

Coleman denies that 133 ballots are missing. However, the governmental officials Say other ways. Coleman was a sleaze when he was a Dem, now he is a bigger one being a GOP. What a jerk. Denial Denial Denial.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/05/coleman-denies-ballots-ar_n_148726.html

[brokebacktom]

They are still going after Obama. They are saying he is not a legal citizen. Guess who is pushing it already. Clearance Thomas, so I guess he made up his mind even before it hits the Supreme Court.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/04/obama-birth-certificate-l_n_148432.html

[garyd]

[
Interesting quote.  Not sure what Obama can really do, without expressly granted authority, more than he is already doing.  He can't appear to be staging a coup. 

The best I've heard is that, as a Senator, he can introduce legislation.  Maybe he will.

Hmm, you might want to check your sources on that one Ellen.
I think his resignation from the Senate was effective November 16th though his office stays open for an additional 60 days for archival and other purposes.

[Dave Cullen]

What I don't understand is that Minnesota's Secretary of State website was
updated yesterday and has Franken leading by over 11,000 votes with 98.67
of the precincts counted.

What is it that I'm missing here?

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

the Wash Post explained this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/12/mn-senate_chaos_rules.html

The process by which the votes have been recounted is simple: an independent arbiter looks at each ballot (on a precinct by precinct basis) and rules on whether it is a vote for Coleman or Franken. Each campaign has an observer in place at the recount and that observer can challenge the ruling of the independent judge. By and large the voter intent is obvious and the ballot is not challenged but in some cases one side or the other makes a challenge -- typically on the basis that the voter's intent is not clear.

It is these challenged ballots, which number roughly 6,000, that are responsible for the confusion.

The secretary of State's office chooses not to count any of these ballots in its overall vote count -- meaning that when the recount ends on Friday there will be 6,000 or so fewer votes than there were on election day.

The Franken campaign, on the other hand, is counting all 6,000 votes -- using as its standard the judgment of the independent observer. So, if the independent analyst ruled a ballot as a vote for Coleman -- even if Franken is challenging it -- the Franken campaign counts it as a vote for Coleman.

In short: the secretary of State is counting none of the challenged ballots and the Franken campaign is counting all of the challenged ballots. It's that simple.

The fate of the race likely rests in the hands of how these 6,000 challenged ballots shake out. Once the recount ends, a five-person canvassing board is set to meet on Dec. 16 to make final rulings on the remaining challenged ballots.

it sounds to me like the franken count is closer to what's likely to be reality once the dust clears, but the SS is only counting confirmed ballots.

(it sounds like coleman is running up his temp count by challenging a bunch of ballots that the indie arbiter says were franken ballots. that allows him to appear like the winner and later charge that it was "stolen.")